Peace Agreements and Civil Wars in Africa: Insurgent Motivations, ...

Thus, the more parties there are to a civil war, the lower the success rate for negotiated agreements. This conclusion is supported by Daniel Druckman’s analysis of nonarmed international negotiations, which found that negotiation processes were facilitated by having fewer parties and that stable agreements were more likely to be concluded from a smaller number of negotiations.⁴³ Moreover, complex civil wars often draw in neighboring states or invite intervention by regional organizations. As in the number of domestic parties, the more outside parties that are drawn into a conflict, the greater the probability that negotiations will fail.

Security Dilemma and Peace Agreements

Another reason why combatants in civil wars refuse to accept a peace agreement is because an agreement would require opponents to do what they consider a threat to their existence. When no legitimate authority exists to enforce people’s physical protection, rebels are asked to disarm, demobilize, and prepare for reintegration into a police force or a national army. Once rebels accept an agreement to demobilize, and surrender their weapons, it becomes almost impossible to enforce future cooperation or to survive an attack by an adversary.⁴⁴ Moreover, when rebels are contemplating demobilization, they face what John Herz describes as a “security dilemma.” He points out that individuals, groups, and their leaders living in conditions of a security dilemma must “be and usually are concerned about their security from being attacked, subjected, dominated or annihilated by other groups and individuals.”⁴⁵

Anarchy in Intrastate and Interstate Conflicts

In comparing conditions of anarchy and security dilemma, Barbara Walter points out that unlike in conditions of anarchy in the interstate system where states can encourage cooperation through treaties and sanctions that threaten punishment, the effects of anarchy for domestic groups can be far more severe. If they wish to cooperate and accept a negotiated settlement to end war, rebels must demobilize their forces and, in so doing, relinquish their only means of protection. The fact that civil war adversaries cannot maintain independent armed forces if they decide to accept peace is the most difficult condition operating against cooperation in a civil war.⁴⁶