Peace Agreements and Civil Wars in Africa: Insurgent Motivations, ...

To answer the questions raised in this study, the book examines four independent variables that are suggested to provide an important explanation of why peace agreements succeed or fail. These variables are the following: (1) the role of third parties in peace agreements, (2) conflict dynamics of civil wars, (3) the role of regional politics in conflict resolution, and (4) the structure of settlements in peace agreements.

1.2. Defining Success And Failure In Peace Agreements

Defining the success and failure of peace agreements raises difficult problems.¹ This is because the benchmarks to be applied in testing “success” and “failure” are not clear. When is a peace accord a success? Peace agreements ending civil wars often include cease-fires, demobilization programs, elections, and postconflict reconstruction. It is often debatable which of these categories of events has to be met before an agreement can be judged a “success.” Moreover, when a country has been through a prolonged and ravenous civil war—as the cases studied here have been—it takes several years before unambiguous signs of peace emerge. Even if war ultimately stops, it may reemerge a few years later, usually with the same causes and the same actors.

In this study, civil war agreements are assessed in two ways. The first test looks at the conclusion of agreements. It addresses why adversaries sign peace agreements, the nature of the agreements themselves in terms of scope and participation, and the quality of the agreements in terms of whether they address the critical concerns of the parties. The second test is concerned with how long the agreement held. It looks at outcomes that are observable shortly after the agreement has been concluded. Did the parties comply with the terms of the settlement? And were the terms of the agreement implemented? If the parties agreed to a cease-fire, then a test on the agreements holding is measured in relation to how the parties relate to each other after the cease-fire comes into effect. I have chosen a three-month duration as a test of an agreement’s holding.