Peace Agreements and Civil Wars in Africa: Insurgent Motivations, ...

Reluctance to Move First

In civil wars, as in war between states, being the first to propose peace negotiations is often seen as an act to be avoided because it sends the wrong signals. The reason is that one party’s decision to call for negotiations is likely to harden the tactics of the enemy and make it more intransigent, putting tough conditions on its cooperation. The common perception—that being the first to ask for negotiations is a sign of capitulation—leads adversaries to avoid such moves. Pillar writes of Jean Letourneau, the French minister for Indochina during the Indochina’s war in 1952, “France does not refuse to talk with Viet Minh, but we will not take the first step.”⁴⁹

The reluctance to be the first to propose peace negotiations in war is a position likely to be taken by both the stronger and the weaker party. The stronger party may feel that it is not appropriate for the winning side to be the first to sue for peace. Thus, even after the Japanese cabinet decided in April 1905—at the height of its victories over Russia—that the time was ripe for negotiations, it did not go forward immediately with such plans because it believed that it would be improper for the victorious party to do so.⁵⁰ The reluctance to move first is even more likely on the side of the losing party: “The party that most fears the label of loser is the one that already looks like a loser. It resists asking for negotiations lest it be taken as a sign of weakness.” Thus, the reluctance to move first strengthens the idea that conditions of political and military stalemate are more propitious for initiating peace negotiations. The reluctance to be the first to propose negotiations affects the conduct of the war in one major way: It may lead the stronger party to delay proposing peace negotiations because of the expectation of military victory in the future.⁵¹

Barriers to Reaching Agreement

Negotiating for Side Effects

Even if warring parties are willing to initiate negotiations, they may not succeed in reaching a peace agreement because one or both combatants may only be interested in what Fred Iklé refers to as negotiating for side effects.⁵²