Peace Agreements and Civil Wars in Africa: Insurgent Motivations, ...

Thus, once combatants sign a peace agreement, “they cannot retreat to their own borders and reinforce their militaries, they do not become trading partners or important allies, and they cannot hide behind buffer zones.”⁴⁷ This condition forces combatants into a difficult dilemma. Thus, the period when civil war combatants are undergoing demobilization and disarmament is a difficult transition that does not encourage cooperation while reducing the ability of the groups to survive an attack. It is a period of extreme vulnerability. As soon as combatants agree to a peace agreement, they become powerless to enforce the terms of the settlement they have just concluded.

As Walter further points out, the fact that an agreement can leave signatories vulnerable and worse off by continuing the war has two significant effects on cooperation. First, it discredits promises by either party to abide by the terms of an agreement, even if offered in good faith. Second, it increases groups’ anxiety about future security and makes them more sensitive to even the smallest agreement violations. As such, Walter concludes, as long as both factions understand that cooperation will leave them vulnerable, and they have no means to avoid this condition, they will prefer to continue fighting rather than risk possible attack.

Barriers to Opening Negotiations

Civil war adversaries may refuse to initiate negotiations because of the images that the parties wish to preserve of themselves and protect from the enemy. Paul Pillar points out that a party’s offer to negotiate (whether government or rebel) is an action that others—including the enemy, and the party’s own soldiers—may use as evidence of its intentions, plans, aspirations, and morale.⁴⁸ Thus, the act of proposing peace talks has implications beyond making the starting of negotiations possible. As a diplomatic tactic, however, proposing peace initiatives can have advantages like dividing the enemy, or undermining the enemy’s domestic and international support.