Peace Agreements and Civil Wars in Africa: Insurgent Motivations, ...

Hypothesis c. A civil war agreement that renders the military or the rebel soldiers unemployed is more likely to be overthrown than one that does not.

Hypothesis d. A peace agreement is more likely to be signed and to hold if it is initiated and results from pressure from a third party than if it emanates on its own.

Hypothesis e. A civil war party that holds nonnegotiable goals is more likely to dishonor a peace agreement it has signed than one that does not.

Structure of Settlements

What issues did the peace agreements cover? Were the accords partial—or comprehensive—in addressing the interests of the parties in the conflict? Did the accords include all parties to the conflicts? Or were some domestic and foreign constituencies not represented? The following hypotheses will be tested:

Hypothesis a. A civil war agreement is more likely to be signed and to hold if it includes power sharing than if it does not.

Hypothesis b. A civil war agreement is more likely to hold if it includes all the insurgents involved in the war than if it does not.

Hypothesis c. A civil war agreement that promises accountability for past crimes is more likely to be overthrown than one that does not.

Regional Politics

Whether peace agreements succeed or fail also largely depends on the actions of neighboring states. With respect to the role of subregional states in peace processes, the following questions will be addressed: Were regional states supportive of the accords? Or were they antagonistic and noncooperative? The following hypothesis will be tested: