| Chapter 1: | A Global, Low-Cost Network Thrives |
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Craig Partridge, Internet pioneer and chief scientist at BBN Technologies, wrote, “We tend to overestimate how fast technology gets installed, especially in Third World countries. One is tempted to say yes to this idea, given the tremendous profusion of cellular over the past 20 years or so. But it is far too optimistic. If one limited this to First and Second World countries, the answer would be more clearly ‘yes it will happen.’ ”
ISOC’s Fred Baker’s answer included a similar point in his elaboration. He wrote, “Mobile wireless communications will be very widely available, but ‘extremely low cost’ makes economic assumptions about the back sides of mountains in Afghanistan and the behavior of entrepreneurs in Africa.”
Adrian Schofield, head of research for ForgeAhead and a leader with Information Industry of South Africa and the World Information Technology and Services Alliance, pointed out the fact that there may always be people left behind. “Although available,” he wrote, “not everyone will be connected to the network, thus continuing the divide between the ‘have’ and ‘have not.’ ”
—Ed Lyell, pioneer in issues regarding Internet and education;professor at Adams State College
And Matthew Allen, president of the Association of Internet Researchers and associate professor of Internet studies at Curtin University in Australia, echoed many respondents’ sentiments when he wrote, “Fundamental development issues (health, education, basic amenities) will restrict the capacity of many people to access networks.”
Alan Levin, chairman for ISOC’s South Africa chapter, wrote, “The rich get richer and the poor get poorer, hence in 2020 there may be a thriving, low-cost network, but those in need of the basics will not be able to use it.” Alejandro Pisanty—CIO of the National University of Mexico, a member of the Internet Governance Forum Advisory Group, and a member of ICANN’s board of directors—boiled it down to numbers.