African Environmental and Human Security in the 21st Century By ...

Many areas in Africa are already witnessing the impact of environmental instabilities such as arable land degradation, drought, and deforestation. Widespread migration, refugee flows, and conflict have set in, putting great pressure on already weak states. According to Homer-Dixon, these types of challenges, in addition to reduced fisheries, will lead to sharp increases in conflict—certainly, to more immediate increases—more so than other grave environmental changes, including ozone depletion and the long-term construct of climate change.⁵⁴

While the developed world may not directly feel the impact of these environmental scarcities, there may be a more immediate and short-term impact felt in the near future, based on energy scarcities. As China, India, and other developing countries continue their economic growth based on the Western economic model, the competition for energy resources will grow. For the United States, the economy is a pillar of national security that depends upon vital energy resources. President Bill Clinton in 1999 stated that “prosperity at home depends upon stability in key regions with which we trade or from which we import critical commodities, such as oil and natural gas.”⁵⁵ With declining reservoirs of nonrenewable resources such as oil and gas, and with past empirical evidence demonstrating that such resources are the cause of wars, the possibility of future conflict centered on these resources seems high.⁵⁶ As our cases will demonstrate, environmental insecurities crosscut all components of human security.

Case Study 1: Niger

Upon planning the trip to Niger, we were struck by the defense attaché's reassurance that Niger is a very peaceful country, unlike many of its neighboring countries. Why was Niger stable, or at least seemingly so, while the Sahel region seemed to be on the precipice of chaos? Moreover, how could a country that had just experienced a food crisis (or famine) be stable? To grasp some understanding of both Niger's commonalities with the Sahel region and its unique qualities, we will begin with a brief background, a description of the food crisis/famine, an environmental