African Environmental and Human Security in the 21st Century By ...

explosive population growth, human survival is precarious. If the state cannot find a way to secure people's basic needs, they will turn to whoever offers relief.

Niger: A Delicate Contrast in Climate Zones

Like many of its sub-Saharan neighbors, the country of Niger sits landlocked and precariously positioned in a region affected by the ebb and flow of shifting climate patterns. This combination makes its southern region vastly different than the north. Only the extreme southern border area of Niger with Burkina Faso, Benin, and Nigeria receives any significant precipitation, which comes in a wet-dry pattern typical of tropical savannas. While the southern 20 percent of the country falls within the definition of a tropical steppe climate, the remaining 80 percent of Niger is considered a true desert climate. Four climographs, figures 1.1–1.4, highlight the winter dry–summer “wet” pattern of precipitation typical to Niger along its southernmost border (figure 1.1) and its steady decrease in precipitation as one moves northward (figures 1.2–1.4). For this purpose, the capital, Niamey, and the cities of Tahoua, Agadez, and Bilma—the only cities with reliable climate records—are used.⁹³

The area closest to Niamey (figure 1.1) shows the effects of the northward portion of the intertropical convergence zone's (ITCZ) seasonal rains. At higher latitude (figures 1.3 and 1.4), it is clear that the majority of Niger is a true desert under the influence of subtropical high pressure (STH).

The late 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s saw a catastrophic, decades-plus drought that afflicted the larger Sahel region of Africa (Niger included). While the catalyst for this drought is still debated among climatologists, one fact is certain: desertification continues to affect the lives of millions of Sahelians. Whether this desertification is anthropogenically induced, a global warming consequence, or due to a combination of factors, the implications to regional stability and security for this developing part of the world are clear, given the area's reliance on changing and increasingly unreliable climate patterns whose end state is unknown. As we have discussed, climate change is not itself the cause of Africa's instability.