Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism ...

Polk not only had the desire to be president, but he also possessed the requisite opportunism to realize his ambition—or at least the first and most challenging step on the road to the White House.²¹

Inclination and Opportunity:
Presidential Aspirants and the Political System

Presidents sit in an enviable position. Their office possesses—at least theoretically—one-third of the federal government's power. As chief executives and party leaders, their words and deeds reverberate symbolically and substantively throughout the country, around the world, and across time. Stephen Skowronek reminded us that “Succeed or fail, presidents are formidable political actors. They are continually remaking our politics, changing the terms of debate and the conditions of maneuver.” Notably, most did not arrive in that office by accident. They strove and strategized; maneuvered and manipulated; cajoled and charmed all sorts—colleagues, competitors, and the American people. As Rexford Tugwell incisively noted, “The reluctant seldom succeed [in attaining the presidency]. One thing is sure. Active ambition began at an earlier time than has usually been supposed, in some cases much earlier.” Hence, presidents are ambitious individuals and skilled politicians. They are also, like Polk, opportunists; if they had not been, then it is unlikely that they would have made it to the White House.²²

The history of presidential elections suggests that aspirants varied most in their ability to perceive and capitalize on the electoral conditions and political events that arose during their political careers. Those most capable of turning exogenous factors and unforeseen occurrences to