| Chapter : | Scenario 1: The Internet and Evolution of Human Intelligence |
Google itself and other search technologies will get better over time, and that will help solve problems created by too much information and too much distraction. By 2020, things will be different.
“I’m optimistic that Google will get smarter by 2020 or will be replaced by a utility that is far better than Google. That tool will allow queries to trigger chains of high-quality information—much closer to knowledge than flood. Humans who are able to access these chains in high-speed, immersive ways will have more patters available to them that will aid decision-making. All of this optimism will only work out if the battle for the soul of the Internet is won by the right people—the people who believe that open, fast, networks are good for all of us.” —Susan Crawford, founder of OneWebDay, Internet law professor at the University of Michigan, former special assistant to President Obama for Science, Technology and Innovation Policy
“If I am using Google to find an answer, it is very likely the answer I find will be on a message board in which other humans are collaboratively debating answers to questions. I will have to choose between the answers I like the best or it will force me to do more research to find more information. Google never breeds passivity or stupidity in me; it catalyzes me to explore further. And along the way I bump into more humans, more ideas, and more answers.” —Joshua Fouts, leader of Dancing Ink, digital diplomacy expert, senior fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, and founding editor of Online Journalism Review
“Both search and sentiment will be fully deployed by 2020. Even if you are stupid, systems can keep you from being a blubbering idiot. Whether you choose to or not will still be your choice and for that, we can’t help you!” —R. Ray Wang, partner in The Altimeter Group, blogger on enterprise strategy
“This question is not about Google. In reality it is about the next company that comes along. The Internet along with a mobile society will enable us to access large quantities of connected information. This will enable society to determine how to use this information in ways that we cannot today. The Internet is full of information, but lacks knowledge. In 2020 human intelligence