news about institutions will combine with the ability of individuals to associate over social networking to create movements for change that hold institutions more accountable and make them more responsive to the public. In the other scenario, large institutions exploit high-speed communications and large data stores to enforce even greater centralized control, and use surveillance to crush opposition. I don’t know which way things will go. Experts continually urge governments and businesses to open up and accept public input, and those institutions resist doing so despite all the benefits. So I have to admit that in this area I tend toward pessimism.”
Rebecca MacKinnon, a co-founder of Global Voices and fellow at Princeton University, sketched out a scenario of change in the social networking space itself in the coming decade: “Social networking may become more seamlessly integrated into most media and services. But I also think that by 2020 in developed Western countries the online and offline worlds are going to be increasingly blurred and integrated. That means that social norms from the online world will impact offline social norms, and offline social norms, rules, and laws, will move more deeply into cyberspace as well. Everything changes everything.”
Dave Levy, a media trend researcher in digital public affairs at Edelman Communications, summarized one of the big social changes wrought by SNS: “When I think of the big picture of social networking from the last decade, I think the intriguing aspect is how little give-and-take there has to be in terms of social capital. A decade ago, a finite number of connections and interactions offline meant that there was actually a high opportunity cost to relationships. We could have deep relationships, but there was a detriment to other types, even if they were surface or fringe connections. Now, the social grid gives us the luxury to keep low-involvement relationships––past contacts, former classmates, etc.––together, but the serious friendships, spouses, those can continue at their high involvement.”
