Cuban–Latin American Relations in the Context of a Changing Hemis ...

Chapter 6, written by Esteban Morales Dominguez, a longtime analyst of U.S.-Cuban relations from the University of Havana, zeroes in on the Obama administration’s policy stance toward the island in the context of U.S. relations with Latin America and the wider world. It should be understood that Morales’chapter is not a standard academic article but rather is a reflection piece from a Cuban insider on the first two years of the administration of Barack Obama. Morales describes how there was an expectation in Cuba and Latin America that Barack Obama, as the first African American U.S. president, elected with a broad mandate for change, would institute more enlightened policies toward both Cuba and Latin America. He argues that these expectations were false hopes because regardless of what Obama’s personal views may be, he is the product of a U.S. government policy establishment that virtually never shifts from the status quo. Like some of the other chapter authors, Morales cites the more progressive rhetoric of Obama as a presidential candidate, then proceeds to detail how U.S. policy under the new administration toward both Cuba and Latin America has fundamentally maintained continuity with the policies of the previous administrations. A change in policy toward Cuba is not completely ruled out but it is conditioned on a successful transition to a new generation of revolutionary leaders and successful economic reform in Havana, not on a change in perspective from Washington. Such a change in U.S. policy might occur only when U.S. rulers conclude that the Cuban revolution is a process that will not be reversed even with Fidel and Raúl Castro’s departure from the political scene.