| Chapter 1: | A Risk to the Republic? |
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A number of challenges exist when it comes to building a theory in this area, particularly the small number of faithless votes, the idiosyncratic nature of the institution, and the turnover of its members. Despite these challenges, however, chapter 2 posits a theory of elector behavior in an effort to help describe, understand, and predict elector behavior in the 2000, 2004, and 2008 assemblages. Similarities exist between each class, but events specific to each election (from the primaries to the general election) likely affected the motivations of electors in each assemblage.
Chapters 3 through 5 discuss the results of the surveys for each Electoral College class under examination, contextualizing the presidential contests in order to foster an understanding of motivations among potentially faithless electors. A portrait of those serving as electors in their respective elections is also provided for each of the Electoral College classes. Because I surmise that every election will have its own character, each assemblage is treated discretely.
Chapter 3 analyzes data from the 2000 Electoral College. The 2000 election proved to be the most controversial of the elections studied here. In many ways, the Electoral College was at the epicenter of this controversy. Consequently, I address how electors viewed the controversy and whether it influenced their assessments of the legitimacy of the outcome. I also establish several indirect measures of the levels of commitment Republican electors had toward the Bush-Cheney ticket. Because several of these electors exhibited unease regarding the outcome, an investigation of these individuals merits great consideration. This is especially true given the Republican ticket’s narrow margin of victory. A mere handful of faithless votes would have placed the outcome in the hands of the House of Representatives or would have given the victory to the Gore-Lieberman ticket (and certainly would have created drama during the certification of electoral votes presided over by Gore).4
Chapters 4 and 5 examine the 2004 and 2008 Electoral Colleges, respectively. In light of questions that arose from responses to the inaugural Electoral College survey, new questions were added that more directly examined the level of commitment electors had toward their parties’ tickets. However, the circumstances surrounding the 2004 and 2008 elections