| Chapter 2: | Pattern of the Insurrection and Modernity |
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The research was conducted with some basic assumptions in mind. One of the guiding presuppositions was that the intelligentsia’s perception of their own status is crucial for an understanding of the root causes of social upheavals. When incentives such as substantial earnings, property, fame, popularity, authority, and power are forthcoming, educated elites could be, by and large, co-opted. These are, however, individual recompenses. There are other collective rewards that although not personal are nevertheless very crucial. One such variable is the elites’ perception of their country and the condition of their own people in comparison with others with similar resources and status in the international community. The elites’ personal alienation from the established order could reach a crucial threshold and thus lead to an eventual revolution if they perceive the performance of the status quo regime as not contributing to the general well-being and sociopolitical development of their country and people in comparison with others with commensurate opportunities and resource capabilities.
One should assume at this juncture that perceptions may be more important than realities. But if realities and perceptions correspond, the rationale and success of an impending revolution become greater. That the Ethiopian educated elites viewed their government as slow moving in the educational development process compared with their African neighbors has been recognized since the abortive 1960 coup d’état. Their alienation was inherently compelling and was leading to a revolt regardless of whether this long-standing notion corresponded to reality. But since in this case perceptions and realities corresponded, the chances for a revolutionary upheaval were enhanced. As can be surmised while in the first case the government could have successfully defended its record and stemmed the tide; in the second instance it could not. Indeed, it slowly became an easy prey for attack since it was politically disarmed by the newly emerging intelligentsia. Even support from indispensable and friendly governments was muted.
On another level of analysis, there were increasing expectations on both a material and psychological level. Personal as well as collective rewards were anticipated which emanated from the Ethiopian youths’ perception of the state of affairs in their own country in comparison