terrorist attacks

assassinations, 49, 103, 125–127, 139, 164, 184

bombings, 23, 49, 103, 126, 127, 182, 184

hostage takings, 35, 49, 72, 102, 103, 125, 126, 135, 138, 145, 149, 164, 182, 184

suicide attacks, 22, 23, 49, 53, 79, 164, 182, 214n19

time series intervention analyses, 67, 68, 83–88

and ARIMA, 84–88, 94, 95, 136, 142, 173

and autocorrelation, 85–88, 94, 173, 210n43

and autoregressive average, 87

and bias, 71, 89, 92, 173

and dependent variables, 69–71

and Durbin–Watson test, 87, 173, 210n47

and independent variables, 69

and intervention variables, 68, 84

and limitations, 89, 95, 151, 214n11

and log transformation, 85, 86, 88, 94

and moving average, 11, 85, 87

and noise, 84, 86, 87, 210n43, 210n45

and problem of counterfactuals, 93, 151

and reliability, 89–91, 95

and time span, 72–75

and units of observation, 71

and uses, 84, 85

and validity, 91–94

transnational terrorism, 37, 57, 58

triangulation, 95, 211n67, 211n68, 214n11

Turkey, 78, 79, 101, 102, 148, 180

turning points, 156

United Kingdom, 101, 102, 180

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, 35, 37

U.S. Department of Defense, 16, 35, 201n7

U.S. State Department, 28, 29, 35, 36, 38, 39, 75–78, 101, 208n17

Uzbekistan, 53

Venezuela, 180

war

guerilla, 9, 36, 55, 56, 108, 208n63

interstate, 4, 5, 198n9

intrastate, 4, 5, 197n6, 198n9, 198n10

nonstate actors, 4, 5, 21, 33, 35, 36, 55, 79, 93, 197n7

preemptive, 6, 7, 17–20, 26, 28, 50, 95, 146, 151, 201n9

preventive, 17, 19, 20, 201n9

substate actors, 4–6, 33, 35, 36, 55, 197n7

Yemen, 25, 101, 102, 179, 180