When Terrorism and Counterterrorism Clash:  The War on Terror and the Transformation of Terrorist Activity
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Part II: When Terrorism and Counterterrorism Clash

61

Chapter 5: How Do We Measure Success?

63

Questions, Hypotheses, and Theories

63

Hypotheses

64

Research Methods

67

Design

67

Independent Variables

69

Dependent Variables

69

Units of Observation

71

Choice of Time Span

72

Sources of Information

75

The ITERATE Data Set

78

The RAND–MIPT Data Set

80

Definitions

81

Similarities and Differences in Sources

81

Statistical Approach

83

Limitations

89

Reliability

89

Validity

91

Other Qualifications

94

Chapter 6: Are We Winning? The Results

97

The Bird’s-Eye View

99

Shifts in the Frequency of Incidents

109

Shifts in the Lethality of Incidents

115

Shifts in the Dispersion and Location of Incidents

121

Shifts in the Type of Attack

125

Hostage Takings

125

Bombings

127