At the other end of the spectrum are individuals like Dr. Sheehan who seek answers using evidence-based inquiry and research. By merging existing data sets on transnational terrorism and then subjecting them to sophisticated time series analyses, Dr. Sheehan presents the reader with rigorous, empirical, statistical tests of the hypothesis that President George W. Bush’s global war on terror has led to a decrease in various indicators of transnational terrorism. He found, with some exceptions, that this is decidedly not the case. While these findings may be counterintuitive for some policymakers, his analysis provides new and compelling data that highlights the growing need for evidence-based counterterrorism policy.
Dr. Sheehan’s study joins a growing list of commentaries critical of the policies emanating from the White House, but with a significant difference. While many commentators criticize U.S. counterterrorism strategy, their critiques tend to rely on media reports on the worsening sectarian violence in Iraq and on the reconstitution of the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Rigorous testing, using data to analyze the effectiveness of the war on terror, has largely been absent.
In this compelling book, Dr. Sheehan undertakes this task using data and evidence to explore the extent to which the global war on terror has increased or decreased transnational terrorism. This is a study grounded in evidence, not in ideological posturing. It should be noted that Dr. Sheehan does not himself take Mr. Bush to task. He does, however, provide evidence that Mr. Bush’s policies have, in the short-term, been counterproductive and self-defeating, enhancing and sustaining the terror it was meant to undermine, thwart, and eliminate.