predictive tests, 25–27, 135, 212, 229

probability, perception of, 84, 85

psychophysics, 77

Quebec, 157, 163

rational choice, 8

conformity, 8

voting, 10, 66, 68, 69, 133, 137, 152, 179

regression analysis, 22, 107, 111

(see also theory testing) false positives, 22

model uncertainty, 24

nonlinear (see nonlinear regression) parabolic model (see parabolic model) relaxation method, 212

Riesman, 39

Romania, 166, 177

Russia, 164

Borodin’s analysis, 164

social cleavages, 178

Rwanda, 228, 248

Selective Service, 92

Shannon, Claude, 72

social capital, 55, 106, 266, 268

note, 10

social categories, 30, 47, 81

social cleavages, 70, 131, 133, 138, 160, 178, 188, 189, 227, 229, 251

Spain, 157, 177

spatial analysis

linearized American states, 210, 213, 214, 224

note, 31

Germany, 235

Japan, 215, 217

U.S. Civil War, 214

U.S. turnout, 211

U.S. presidential elections, 211–213

Yugoslavia, 214

spillover, 133–135

Senegal, 263

Sri Lanka, 246

stability of government, 187–189, 219–222, 241, 242

stereotypes, 6, 13, 49, 249, 258

stock market, 3

bubbles, 3, 191

conformity, 52, 191

crash, 240

Sweden, 157, 177, 261

Switzerland, 155, 157, 159, 162, 177

tax compliance, 50

Texas, 71, 118

theory testing predictive, 22, 124, 138, 139

psychology, 25

“signature,”, 21, 26, 94, 105, 124

typology of predictions, 26

(see also regression) deTocqueville, Alexis, 6, 35, 54, 59

turnout (see voter turnout)

U.K. (see Britain)

Ukraine, 167, 168, 177, 178

U.S. elections (see American presidential elections)

vitamin E, 23

voter turnout change over time, 195

collectivism, cleavage effects, 70

definitions, 142