Jimmy Carter and the Water Wars: Presidential Influence and the Politics of Pork
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Jimmy Carter and the Water Wars: Presidential Influence and the P ...

Chapter 1:  The Veto and Presidential Influence
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Each side in the veto struggle has limited information about the policy preferences and political intentions of the other.2 Questions abound on all sides.For the president: Is Congress willing to compromise or will they hold fast? Do my congressional adversaries have the votes necessary to override my veto? For Congress: Is the president likely to follow through and veto the bill as written? How much would have to change in the bill to avoid a presidential veto? For the override advocates: Can the necessary votes be marshaled to override the president’s veto? On all sides: How will the public (House and Senate constituencies, and national constituencies) respond to all of this? Who will benefit and who will lose in a veto struggle? Is it worth it? In short, all sides in a veto struggle operate in an environment of “imperfect information.”

Levels of information on both sides are sensitive to several contextual considerations. Whether there is one-party control of both Congress and the White House (united government) or split-party control of these institutions (divided government) is an important contextual factor. As Charles Cameron (2000) demonstrated, vetoes, especially those likely to involve extended rounds of veto bargaining, are more common during periods of divided government.

2 Conley and Kreppel argued that veto situations are “one of the few real world examples of near-perfect information for all of the actors involved” because the vote tally on a conference report is public information, and “[t]he president has a very good idea of the potential success of a veto long before a veto is cast” (2001, 832). When we queried one interviewee about this, he responded, “No. You never know until the votes are counted” (Jim Free, interview with the authors, August 2007, Washington, DC).