Belief-based Energy Technology Development in the United States: ...

in other countries. The commercialization of nuclear power was more successful in France, and synthetic fuels were more successful in South Africa and Canada. Those stories are not included, but I do not believe their lessons contradict the findings and conclusions of this book.

In the early postwar period, both technologies were precommercial. Although synthetic fuel and nuclear power were aimed at two distinct parts of the energy economy, their potential significances in the economy were comparable. In the early 1950s, President Truman established a President's Material Policy Commission, commonly known as the Paley Commission. The Paley Commission published its report in 1952. It was the most comprehensive and detailed assessment of natural resources in the United States at that time. The report warned that “liquid fuels already present a serious security problem to the whole world, and this problem is likely to increase,” and “synthetic oil will come into commercial production within a decade or so—perhaps sooner.” Regarding electricity, the Paley commission concluded that the United States had enough energy resources to support its rising demand for electricity, and that “at this time, it does not appear that nuclear fission can be regarded as a contribution in any substantial degree to electric generation during at least the next 10 or 15 years, and the probability is that the atomic energy industry will remain a heavy net consumer of electricity.”¹

In 1952 synthetic fuels appeared to be a promising technology that could be used to mitigate an impending oil shortage. Nuclear power was assessed to be unpromising and unneeded. Interestingly, in 1953, the U.S. government abolished its synthetic liquid fuel program and started to forcefully support the development of civilian nuclear power. To me, the fact that nuclear power was officially selected as the preferred energy technology seemed peculiar and irrational.

Thanks to the U.S. government's forceful policy, the nuclear option had become an established industry by the early 1970s, while the development of synthetic fuels was still largely limited to the laboratory. During the early stage of the oil crisis, policymakers in the United