Chapter 1: | History and Consequence |
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discusses data sources used. Section 1.4 outlines the plan of the book. Section 1.5 details the existing literature on ordnance in Cambodia. Section 1.6 provides historical information leading up to the current ordnance problem. Section 1.7 summarizes the impact ordnance has had on specific groups of people. Section 1.8 details domestic and international actions that have been taken to combat the problem.
1.2. Methodology
This book uses cross-section, panel, and time-series estimation methods in testing hypotheses. Various measures of socioeconomic conditions are used in an effort to test the hypothesis that economic need and poverty directly affect landmine/UXO incidents. This analysis is carried out for the cross section of 185 administrative districts.
Next, an examination of the impact agricultural conditions have on landmine/UXO incidents takes place. This analysis takes place at a provincial level for every harvest season between 1998 and 2006. Administrative boundaries in Cambodia structure provinces as the first and largest unit of geographic division. Cambodia is currently composed of 26 provinces. It is my hypothesis that landmine/UXO incidents are directly related to levels of agricultural output.
Finally, a monthly time-series analysis is introduced, examining the relationship between the price of scrap metal and the prevalence of landmine/UXO incidents. This analysis takes place for the entire country between March 1996 and December 2007. Testing this hypothesis is possible for the first time following the acquisition of a price record near the Cambodia–Thailand border accomplished during the field research phase of this book. Accordingly, a paramount hypothesis relating tampering activities to the price of scrap metal is posed and statistically explored.
One important contribution of this book is the unique distinction made between accidents and tampering. While the distinction between these two incident types is traditionally made by ordnance type (landmines vs. UXO), I redefine tampering and, instead, consider economic incentives as the distinguishing characteristic that defines tampering. More